Plane Crashes Are They Really Increasing Analyzing The Data

In recent years, a growing number of news reports about commercial aviation incidents have sparked public concern: are plane crashes becoming more common? With social media amplifying isolated events and 24-hour news cycles highlighting every emergency landing or turbulence incident, it's easy to believe air travel is becoming riskier. However, raw emotion and anecdotal evidence don’t tell the full story. To understand whether plane crashes are truly on the rise, we must turn to comprehensive data, historical trends, and expert analysis from aviation authorities around the world.

The truth may surprise you. Despite occasional spikes in reported accidents, the long-term trend in aviation safety shows consistent improvement. In fact, flying today is statistically safer than at any point in history. This article examines the data behind aircraft accidents, explores why perceptions may differ from reality, and provides context for understanding what the numbers really mean.

Global Aviation Safety Trends Over Time

To assess whether plane crashes are increasing, one must look at long-term datasets compiled by organizations such as the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), Boeing’s annual statistical summaries, and the Aviation Safety Network (ASN). These sources track jet hull losses—aircraft destroyed or damaged beyond economical repair—and fatal accidents involving commercial passenger flights.

According to Boeing’s Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Airplane Accidents, the five-year average (2018–2022) saw just 0.27 fatal accidents per million departures globally. Compare this to the 1950s, when the rate was over 40 times higher. Even within the last two decades, improvements are evident. From 2002–2011, there were an average of 30 fatal accidents annually. Between 2013 and 2022, that dropped to 14 per year—a nearly 53% reduction.

Tip: When evaluating aviation safety, focus on rates (accidents per million flights) rather than absolute numbers to account for increased air traffic.

Recent Years: A Closer Look at 2020–2023

The early 2020s presented unique challenges due to the pandemic’s impact on aviation. Flight volumes plummeted in 2020 and 2021, making accident rates less stable year-to-year. However, as operations resumed in 2022 and 2023, some notable incidents occurred—including the Jeju Air crash in South Korea and several runway excursions in the U.S.—which contributed to a slight uptick in public concern.

In 2023, ASN recorded 58 aviation accidents worldwide involving airliners, of which 8 were fatal, resulting in 333 fatalities. While this represents an increase from 2022’s 38 accidents and 5 fatal crashes, it remains well below historical averages when adjusted for total flight activity. For perspective, in 1972 alone, there were 51 fatal jet airliner accidents.

Year	Total Accidents	Fatal Accidents	Fatalities	Global Flights (Est.)
1972	101	51	2,884	~10 million
2002	145	30	1,062	~18 million
2013–2022 Avg	55	14	437	~35 million
2023	58	8	333	~37 million

As shown, while 2023 had more total accidents than 2022, both the number of fatal accidents and fatalities remained relatively low compared to past decades. More importantly, the accident *rate*—accidents per million flights—was still under 1.6, continuing a downward trajectory over time.

Why It Feels Like Crashes Are Increasing

If the data shows improving safety, why do so many people believe flying is getting more dangerous?

• Media Coverage Bias: Major crashes receive extensive global coverage, especially if Western carriers or high-profile passengers are involved. Smaller incidents in remote regions often go unreported, but rare catastrophic events dominate headlines.
• Social Media Amplification: Viral videos of emergency landings, turbulence injuries, or runway skids create impressions of widespread danger—even when no fatalities occur.
• Increased Flight Volume: With over 37 million flights annually, even a tiny accident rate translates into dozens of incidents. More flights mean more opportunities for something to go wrong, even if systems are safer.
• Post-Pandemic Adjustments: Reduced staffing, pilot rustiness after furloughs, and air traffic control shortages created transitional risks, though these appear to be stabilizing.

“People judge risk based on memory and emotion, not statistics. A single dramatic crash can overshadow millions of safe flights.” — Dr. Sidney Winter, Aviation Risk Analyst, University of Pennsylvania

Key Factors Behind Improved Aviation Safety

The decline in fatal accidents isn’t accidental—it results from decades of technological innovation, regulatory oversight, and operational refinement. Several critical advancements have made modern aviation exceptionally resilient:

1. Advanced Avionics and Automation: Modern aircraft use fly-by-wire systems, terrain awareness warnings (TAWS), and predictive wind shear detection to prevent controlled flight into terrain (CFIT), once a leading cause of crashes.
2. Enhanced Pilot Training: Crew resource management (CRM) and recurrent simulator training emphasize decision-making under stress, reducing human error.
3. Global Data Sharing: Programs like ICAO’s Global Aviation Safety Plan (GASP) promote international cooperation, standardization, and real-time hazard reporting.
4. Maintenance & Monitoring: Real-time engine health monitoring and predictive analytics allow airlines to address mechanical issues before they become critical.
5. Regulatory Harmonization: Agencies like EASA (Europe) and FAA (U.S.) continuously update safety mandates based on incident data, ensuring rapid response to emerging threats.

Mini Case Study: The Asiana Airlines Flight 214 Recovery

In 2013, Asiana Airlines Flight 214 crashed while landing in San Francisco, killing three passengers. Though tragic, the outcome could have been far worse. Of the 307 people on board, 298 survived. Post-accident investigations revealed pilot mismanagement during manual approach, lack of automation awareness, and inadequate monitoring.

Instead of signaling declining safety, this incident led to sweeping changes. Airlines revised training protocols for automated flight systems, emphasized manual flying skills, and improved cockpit communication standards. Today, such scenarios are specifically trained for, demonstrating how each accident contributes to systemic learning and prevention.

Checklist: How to Evaluate Aviation Safety Claims

When encountering headlines about rising plane crashes, use this checklist to assess credibility:

• ✅ Does the report include accident rates per million flights, or only raw numbers?
• ✅ Is the data normalized for total flight volume?
• ✅ Does it distinguish between fatal and non-fatal incidents?
• ✅ Are private/general aviation accidents included alongside commercial flights?
• ✅ Is the source citing reputable databases like ASN, ICAO, or Boeing?
• ✅ Has the article accounted for statistical variance in low-frequency events?

Frequently Asked Questions

Are small regional planes less safe than major airline jets?

No significant difference in design safety exists, but regional carriers sometimes operate under different regulatory frameworks and may have fewer resources for training and maintenance. However, all commercial passenger flights in regulated airspace must meet strict certification standards. Statistically, the difference in risk is negligible for passengers.

Has turbulence become more dangerous?

Turbulence-related injuries have increased slightly, partly due to climate change affecting atmospheric stability and better reporting. However, turbulence rarely causes structural damage to modern aircraft. Most injuries occur when passengers are not wearing seatbelts. Pilots now use AI-powered forecasting tools to avoid turbulent zones proactively.

Is flying still the safest way to travel?

Yes. Per mile traveled, the risk of death in a commercial plane crash is approximately 1 in 11 million. By comparison, the risk of dying in a car accident is about 1 in 93,000. You are over 100 times more likely to die in a road accident than on a scheduled flight.

Conclusion: Flying Has Never Been Safer

The data is clear: plane crashes are not increasing in any meaningful or sustained way. On the contrary, commercial aviation continues to break safety records year after year. While individual accidents remain devastating, they are increasingly rare exceptions in an industry defined by rigorous protocols, continuous improvement, and unprecedented reliability.

Public perception often lags behind reality, especially when fear and visibility distort our sense of risk. But by relying on verified data, understanding context, and recognizing the layers of safety built into every flight, travelers can fly with confidence.

🚀 Stay informed, not alarmed. Share this article to help others understand the real story behind aviation safety—and keep flying with peace of mind.